But I for one do not understand the hype and preseason love the Kentucky Wildcat men's basketball program is receiving from around the nation this summer.
Sure, I'm Memphis born and Memphis bred not to mention much of my extended family still resides in the Bluff City. So I understand if you immediately want to stop reading this post, under the impression that I just can't get over the whole "Calipari thing". Honestly though, I feel like I can give better insight on this topic than the average fan simply because I have witnessed what it takes to make the Cal-engine roll. Let me be the first to tell you, it's alot more than hot coals.
Before I get started though, let me put this out there so it's evident. Kentucky will....hang on, this needs more emphasizing...[bold] much better....Kentucky WILL be dominant once again. It just won't be this season. Here are 3 reasons why.
1) The Offense
- One of the biggest draws to playing for Coach Cal is his high octane offense. Coined the "dribble -drive" offense from it's creator, current UMass assistant Vance Walberg, the sets require players to hang near the perimeter and allow the point guard to work his magic. Walberg referred to the offense as "AASAA" which stands for "attack-attack-skip-attack-attack". Basically it's all about penetration from the point guard and once into the lane, it is up to the #1 man to choose an option: a) lay it in, b) dish it low, c) kick it out and restart the process. Here is a great article from Mike DeCourcy who broke it down back in 2008.
Now we all witnessed how nicely it worked with Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans over the past 2 seasons. So why would it not work with #1 recruit John Wall?
Make no doubt about it- Rose and Evans were spectacular decision makers. But they got some serious help that goes un-noticed with a cast of experienced veterans. For Rose, he was lucky to have 2 year starters Chris Douglas-Roberts, Antonio Anderson, Robert Dozier, and senior Joey Dorsey. When Evans arrived, Anderson and Dozier remained along with an often used Doneal Mack. That's at least 3-4 players who surrounded the newcomers and understood the tricky playbook.
How many players surround Wall? Zero.
This scenario has happend to Calipari teams in the past that were still successful, 2005-2006 and 2006-2007. Both of those teams made it to the Elite 8 before being sent home. However, it was clear that the pressure on high profile recruits Darius Washington Jr. and Willie Kemp (the primary ball handlers in those seasons) got the best of them at times and those were the games Memphis dropped.
John Wall is a much better player than Washington and Kemp combined. But it's hard to get past the fact that it's going to be a long learning process for he and his Wildcat teammates. Plus, I still can't envision how DeMarcus Cousins will be used in this system. But that's a whole different topic...
Sure, I'm Memphis born and Memphis bred not to mention much of my extended family still resides in the Bluff City. So I understand if you immediately want to stop reading this post, under the impression that I just can't get over the whole "Calipari thing". Honestly though, I feel like I can give better insight on this topic than the average fan simply because I have witnessed what it takes to make the Cal-engine roll. Let me be the first to tell you, it's alot more than hot coals.
Before I get started though, let me put this out there so it's evident. Kentucky will....hang on, this needs more emphasizing...[bold] much better....Kentucky WILL be dominant once again. It just won't be this season. Here are 3 reasons why.
1) The Offense
- One of the biggest draws to playing for Coach Cal is his high octane offense. Coined the "dribble -drive" offense from it's creator, current UMass assistant Vance Walberg, the sets require players to hang near the perimeter and allow the point guard to work his magic. Walberg referred to the offense as "AASAA" which stands for "attack-attack-skip-attack-attack". Basically it's all about penetration from the point guard and once into the lane, it is up to the #1 man to choose an option: a) lay it in, b) dish it low, c) kick it out and restart the process. Here is a great article from Mike DeCourcy who broke it down back in 2008.Now we all witnessed how nicely it worked with Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans over the past 2 seasons. So why would it not work with #1 recruit John Wall?
Make no doubt about it- Rose and Evans were spectacular decision makers. But they got some serious help that goes un-noticed with a cast of experienced veterans. For Rose, he was lucky to have 2 year starters Chris Douglas-Roberts, Antonio Anderson, Robert Dozier, and senior Joey Dorsey. When Evans arrived, Anderson and Dozier remained along with an often used Doneal Mack. That's at least 3-4 players who surrounded the newcomers and understood the tricky playbook.
How many players surround Wall? Zero.
This scenario has happend to Calipari teams in the past that were still successful, 2005-2006 and 2006-2007. Both of those teams made it to the Elite 8 before being sent home. However, it was clear that the pressure on high profile recruits Darius Washington Jr. and Willie Kemp (the primary ball handlers in those seasons) got the best of them at times and those were the games Memphis dropped.
John Wall is a much better player than Washington and Kemp combined. But it's hard to get past the fact that it's going to be a long learning process for he and his Wildcat teammates. Plus, I still can't envision how DeMarcus Cousins will be used in this system. But that's a whole different topic...
2) You Can't Spell Three without Meeks
- Forget the fact that Calipari loses the SEC's leading scorer with 23.7 PPG (who also was the conference leader in FT% and 13th in the conference in steals). Jodie Meeks will be missed most in Lexington behind the arc. See, now that you know how this whole dribble-drive offense works, you know that one of the keys to scoring, besides penetration, is the ability to make it rain from the outside. Not counting Meeks, Kentucky placed 0 players in the top 15 in triples made. In fact, while Meek pitched in 117 three-pointers last season, Kentucky's next closest option added less than 65 on the season (just more than 1.5 per game). That could be a major problem for UK in 2009-10.Hardcore analysts know what JUCO swingman Darnell Dodson allegedly brings to the equation. The problem is that requires us to assume he will step in and hit shots immediately. Even if Dodson does fill some of the void, heads will still be turning elsewhere for threats. Darius Miller had success in this area in high school, but he hasn't shown consistency in college. DeAndre Liggins may get more opportunities not handling the ball. But other than that, it wouldn't surprise me if opponents double down on the prominent UK post players, opting to dare the Wildcats to shoot from long range.
3) Schedule leaves little room for error
- We saw during his tenure at Memphis that John Calipari has no problem strapping on armor and going to war with some of the nation's best squads. Of course, that was usually because the Tigers needed constant RPI help before entering a putrid C-USA schedule.Evidently Cal still hasn't received the official memo that he's playing with the big boys now.
Already leaked to be on the schedule for 2009 include the likes of North Carolina and Louisville, as well as road trips to Indiana, UCONN (in New York), and Virginia/Stanford (in Cancun). Couple that with the SEC schedule and it's not all gravy for this Wildcat team, no matter the talent.
Sure, you may be saying that the SEC isn't known as a basketball powerhouse- to which I'd agree. But we can't count out a few facts...
- Florida and Vanderbilt (yes Vandy) remain difficult places to play for the favorites
- The SEC benefited the most of any conference in regards to players opting out of the NBA Draft. South Carolina will get back stud Devan Downey and Dominique Archie. Arkansas returns Michael Washington, while Mississippi State gets back the most dominant block man in the nation in Jarvis Varnado. And league-champ LSU welcome's back Tasmin Mitchell.
- Tennessee may not show as high as Kentucky in pre-season polls, but make no mistake, the Vols will be the heavy challengers to UK's crown. Tyler Smith is back on a team that loses nobody and should be loaded with veterans.
- Mississippi State will be a tough challenge for anyone this year. Guard play is a question mark, but with Varnado back and the additions of 5-stars John Riek and Renardo Sidney, the Bulldog frontcourt will be bruising for opponents.
So there you have it. My 3 reasons why Kentucky shouldn't be ranked in the Top 10 (especially #2 Gary Parrish). Will UK still win 20+? Most likely. But I'll be surprised if the heralded class of freshman take a clan of under-excelling cast members (minus Patrick Patterson) to the title game or even the Final Four.
No comments:
Post a Comment