"Isn't football before basketball Wally?"
Yes. This is a true statement.
But when you've been at an AAU Basketball tournament all weekend, videotaping some of the nation's elite prospects, you kind of get in a hoops mood. So why not offer my early predictions on next season?
As I said in my last post, I will take into account the incoming recruits for each program. But to be honest, I'm not going to reward Kentucky the #1 spot just because they have some great recruits.
Sure there are those out there that are prepared and ready to take on the college level of play, but many more are not. We have no idea how they'll do.
Michael Beasley was a great player in college and we expected him to be, rated #1 overall in the class of 2007. He was dominant and left a mark on each game he played.
So too did Blake Griffin. But to find Griffin's name at #23, you had to pass by DeAndre Jordan, Nayal Koshwal, Chandler Parsons, and Jamelle Horne.
My point being, ratings are usually a fair way for expectations, but can't be 100% relied upon.
All that said... here's my earliest version of predictions:
1) Kansas- Ya, it sucks that I have to have my most hated team so high. But this blog would lose all respect if they were at the bottom where I'd prefer. Kansas exceeded my expectations in the tournament this season with such a young squad, reaching the Elite 8 before falling to finalist Michigan State. Collins and Aldrich return to a now experienced lineup that is ever-improving, and thanks to John Calipari's move, they add Xavier Henry to a guard position they greatly need help at on the offensive side of the floor. I like the potential... and that not only scares me, but kills me to believe inside.
2) Michigan State- The Spartans made me look pretty smart making it to the Final Four last season and I'm hoping they make me look smart again having them predicted so high. People talk about the youth KU played with last season, but this MSU team did even better with arguably an equally young roster. Gone is Travis Walton, but more importantly, Goran Suton and Marquise Gray. But in their places lie a now veteran Chris Allen, an uber-talented Delvon Roe ready for more minutes, and Michigan's big+bruising Mr. Basketball Derrick Nix. I'd say they'll be more than fine.
3) Texas- If the Longhorns manage to keep Damion James in Austin, they may easily contend for the top spot in my rankings later in the year. Forget that they have Avery Bradley, ESPN's #1 player in the '09 class, coming in town along with Jordan Hamilton. 2 year starter's Justin Mason and Gary Johnson return and are balanced on both ends. Dexter Pittman continues to improve and we expect the same from youngster Clint Chapman. Dogus Balbay quietly finished 5th in the Big 12 in assists. And oh ya, they have a player you may remember hearing about who's now on campus and prepared to take the reigns from AJ Abrams- Jai Lucas ring a bell? Yikes. 
4) Villanova- I'm loving the possibilities in Philly next season. If Scottie Reynolds returns, this team loses NOBODY from a Final Four appearance a year ago. They'll gain a whole lot more too- a class that includes 4 players in the top 65 and finally-finally-finally a legit big man in Mouphtaou Yarou. Get ready 'Nova fans, this could be 1985 all over again.
5) West Virginia- I had to double check it: Alex Ruoff= STILL eligible?? No offense to Ruoff, but he's been a well known name for so long now, I just assumed he was a senior last year. Not the case. This year will be the year though, and as the lone graduate expected next year, this Mountaineer's team remains loaded from a year ago. Like their Big East counterparts only a slot above, they won't lose a single player from an emerging program. Da'Sean Butler, Joe Mazzula, Devin Ebanks, and Ruoff form a pretty solid 4-some in any league. And look out for New York Gaucho star Dan Jennings to make an impact in the paint. He could be a surprise candidate for Big East Freshman of the Year by season's end. 
6) UNC- I'm still not sold on the Heels being towards the top (ya, even #6), but I'm banking on the preparation and coaching this staff will provide to have a group of inexperienced players ready to roll again. Despite losing Tyler Hansbrough, I believe the post is actually the place that needs the least work. Ed Davis, Deon Thompson, and a healthy Tyler Zeller return and will be joined by 5-Star John Henson. But the backcourt is extremely shaky and lacks all sorts of depth. Larry Drew II looked capable of handling himself, but past him, there's nobody. Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald may be two of the most pressure-felt frosh in the nation next year. Without solid contributions, this team will fail. 
7) Purdue- A fantastic team that I've loved watching for the last two seasons is back among the nation's elite in 2009. The Boilers went one step further in the NCAA's last year than in 2007 and have been one of the fastest improving teams in the nation since their amazing freshman class arrived that summer. Robbie Hummel is healthy, JaJuan Johnson is putting on pounds, and E'Twan Moore is now a house hold name like Hummel who continues to put the ball in the bucket. Glue men Chris Kramer and Keaton Grant are also back. But, similar to Villanova, Purdue seems to be heading in a direction that will always hit a road block when faced against opponents who thrive in the paint. With a recruiting class that looks like another edition of "big man by committee", Purdue will only go so far as their bracket's bless them. 
8) Duke- I anticipate Gerald Henderson to remain in the Draft but either way, I think the Blue Devils are stuck around #8. The Devils have some solid tools, but remain a "close...but not quite" team. Kyle Singler is a fantastic player and has some players around him (Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith, Lance Thomas, Elliot Williams, Brian Zoubek) who remain the reigning ACC Tournament Champions. Add Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly and you've got to be asking, "Why not higher than 8th?". To this question, I have no answer. But just like season's past, there is just something going on at Duke that lacks the old firepower and keeps them from being a top-tier team in my eyes.
9) Butler- I said it late last season on a message board and received a mediocre response: "Brad Stevens should be a top nominee for Coach of the Year." Last season, the 3 leading scorers for the Bulldogs were a Sophomore and two Freshman. Well, of course, they're all back- Matt Howard, Gordan Hayward, and Shelvin Mack. Stevens and Co. won't shy away from competition this year either, jumping right in to the heat of battle at the 76 Classic in which I expect an upset over one of the "bigger contenders" (UCLA, Minnesota, West Virginia, Clemson, and/or Texas A&M). 
10) Tennessee- Sure, it was a down season for the SEC. And after Tyler Smith announced his intentions to declare, things looked more bleak for '09. But I expect Smith to see a brighter future at UT and if that happens, look for the Vols to sky rocket. Bobby Maze, Wayne Chism, Josh Tabb, JP Prince, and Smith would give the men in orange a vital senior core. I also expect the highly ranked freshman class from a year ago to make a big turn around, most notably Scotty Hopson and Cameron Tatum. They're high octane and mistake prone because of it, but they're still just too experienced to be left out of this Top 10. -Narrowly Missing: Clemson, Minnesota, Oklahoma
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